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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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