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Only 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously backed the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.